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Kentucky Center =
for
School Safety
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Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
COSTS OF DROPPING OUT IN KENTUCKY
Doris Settles
Kentucky Center for School Safety
Clearinghouse
University of Kentucky
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
=
The Center for School Safety’s
mission shall be to serve as the central point for
üdata analysis
üdissemination of information about
successful school safety programs
üresearch results
ünew programs
üand in collaboration with the Kentucky
Department of Education and others, to provide technical assistanc=
e for safer
schools.
<=
span
style=3D'font-size:111%;color:white;mso-color-index:0;visibility:hidden'><=
span
style=3D'mso-special-format:bullet;position:absolute;left:-3.05%'>
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
=
A collaborative effort, the Kentucky
Center for School Safety partners work to education, inform and research safe
schools efforts for educators, law enforcement, youth and all Kentuckia=
ns interested in cr=
eating
a safer school environment.
uEastern Kentucky University
uUniversity of Kentucky
uMurray State University
uKentucky School Boards Association
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
![](3D"slide0029_image003.gif")
90%
of Students
UNIVERSAL
INTERVENTION
School-Wide
Systems of Support
![](3D"slide0029_image004.gif")
7-9%
of Students
TARGETED
INTERVENTION
Individual and
Small Group Strategies
![](3D"slide0029_image005.gif")
1-3%
of Students
INTENSIVE INTERVENTION
Individualized
Attention with
wraparound services
Conceptual Framework<=
/div>
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
Definition of School Safet=
y
School safety is the promotion =
of safe and healthy learning environments so that all students have the opportunity <=
/b>to achieve success.<=
/span>
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
•Concern for the future of Kentucky’s youth has=
always focused ar=
ound
education. It will come as a surprise to no one that dropping ou=
t of
school is costly both personally to the dropout and to the
state’s economic growth.
•For the first time, this research strives to demonstrate throu=
gh
very real and concrete means that not only students benefit whe=
n they graduate fro=
m high
school, but state and local governments have a vested financia=
l interest in reduc=
ing
dropout rates substantially.
•
Rationale
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
COST
FACTORS:
•Lost development of minds and
character
•Lost opportunities made available by=
the
educational process
•Lost potential personal income for
students
•Lost local government tax revenue
through lower wages
•Lost state government tax revenue
that is much needed in the bottom-line budgets that we curren=
tly
face as a state and nation
•
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
•KidsCOUNT 2002
•Lexington-Fayette Urban County Government
•Kentucky Revenue Cabinet
=
•<=
/span>KCSS Safe Schools Report
=
•<=
/span>Kentucky Department of Education&#=
13;
•US Census 2000
=
•<=
/span>Kentucky State Data Center (U of L=
)
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
•PERSON=
AL
•COSTS =
•FACTOR=
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
Personal
Income Lost
•According to the 2000 US Census data, the annual mean income fo=
r a Kentucky high school graduate i=
s $30,005.
=
However, a high school dropout =
earns a mean income of $18,729 =
each year.
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Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
Personal
Income Lost
•Therefore, the estimated lifetime =
loss in personal
income for a high school dropout over an average 45 years=
of
working life is calculated below:
<=
/span>
(45) x ($30,005 - $18,729) =3D $507,420.00<=
/span>
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
HS
Credit Valuation
•Translating the value of each high school credit into income loss per <=
/span>credit not completed can be calculated by dividing the =
estimated personal income loss =
by the number of credits required =
for a high school diploma.
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
HS
Credit Valuation
•The Kentucky Department of Education specifies that in or=
der to
graduate from a Kentucky accredited high school, a student must complete 22 cre=
dits
or courses. The formula below calculates the loss of lifetime income per
incomplete credit for each dropout:
•
$507,420 / 22 credits =3D $23,064=
.55
lifetime income
loss per incomplete credit
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
Hour
Spent in School Value
•Calculating a value for each hour spent in high school further drives home=
the point that education does pay on a=
very personal level.
<=
/span>
•Each school year is 175 days or, based on a 6 hour day, students spend approximately 1050 hours in school=
per year, and 4200 hours in four <=
/span>years.
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
Hours Spent in School Value
•This can be translated into a lifetime income loss for high school dropou=
ts by dividing the estimated lifetime=
income loss by the number of hours=
spent in school:
•
$507,420 / 4200 hours =3D $120.81 lifetime income loss per hour spent =
out of school
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
Personal
Costs Summary
•To reiterate, students who drop out of =
high
s=
chool
can expect to earn $507,420 less over their average working years than those who graduate.&=
#13;
•Each credit they complete is worth $970=
8, making each hour they
spend staying in school commensurate with earning $120/hour.
•Few jobs available to teenagers with or=
without a high school
diploma can provide that kind of salary!
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
•<=
b>STATE
GOVERNMENT
•COST F=
ACTOR
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
Meth=
odology
•These calculations are based on 2000 US Census figures for mean income throughout Kentucky, which are
multiplied b=
y the
state tax rate schedule, arriving at estimated mean state tax potentials.
<=
span
style=3D'visibility:hidden'>•
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
State
Revenue Differential
Estimated State Tax on 2000 Mean <=
/span>Personal Income for:
•<=
/span>KY HS Graduates =3D $1600.30
•<=
/span>KY HS Dropouts =3D $923.74
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
•Another formula determines the potential =
revenue gain for Ken=
tucky
for each class of dropouts. The difference between the annual tax on estima=
ted
income for the graduate and non-gra=
duate
is calculated and multiplied by the number of dropouts—<=
/span>8919 students—=
for
the 2000-2001 school year (2002 Kids Count data).
•
•8919
x ($1600.30 - $923.74) =3D $6,034,238.64
Revenue
Gain Per Class
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
Potential Annual Revenue Gain
•Each year, there are approximately 45 years of high school classes worki=
ng, so the potential gain for the Stat=
e Treasury compounds, gaining an estimated $114 million dollars annually.
•45 x $ 6,034,=
238.64
=3D $271,540,739
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
State
Cost Factor Summary
•Each year, Kentucky has the potential to =
increase it’s =
state
revenue coffers by over $6 million through reducing the number of <=
/span>high school dropouts=
in
each class.
•Multiplying the reve=
nue
difference by only the Class of 2002 by 45 years of working =
cohorts, the estimat=
ed
revenue increase for Kentucky exceeds $271 million annually.
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
•<=
b>LOCAL
GOVERNMENT
•COST
FACTOR
•
•=
Using
Lexington-Fayette Urban County Government as an Example=
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
Meth=
odology
•These calculations are based on 2000 US Census figures for mean income in =
Fayette County alone, which are
multiplied b=
y the
Lexington-Fayette County Urban County Government (LFUCG) tax withholdings schedule, arriving at estimated mean local government re=
venue potential.
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
Estimated LFUCG Income Tax on Annual Gross Personal Income for:&=
#13;
•<=
/span>HS Graduate =3D $753.94
•<=
/span>HS Dropout =3D $408.87 <=
/div>
Local
Revenue Differential
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
•The difference between the gross annual <=
span
style=3D'position:absolute;top:28.99%;left:14.79%;width:82.02%;height:6.0%=
'>income tax for the h=
igh
school graduate and high school dropout is calculated and multiplied by the nu=
mber
of high school dropouts—576 students in Fayette County—during =
the
2000-2001 school year (Kids Count 2002 data).
•576 x
($753.94 - $408.87) =3D $198,760.32
Revenue
Gain Per Class
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
•Annually, 45 years of HS
Classes a=
re
working concurrently, which could positively impact local government coffers by an estimated=
$5.3 million dollars each year. =
3;
•45 x $ 198,76=
0.32 =3D
$8,944,200.00
Comp=
ounded
Revenue Gain
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
LFUCG
Summary
•The Lexington-Fayette Urban County Government could gain
almost $199,000 dollars in local revenue each year from <=
span
style=3D'position:absolute;top:43.0%;left:14.79%;width:73.59%;height:6.0%'=
>only one year’s
dropout population.
•Using a single year’s impact on the revenue stream multi=
plied
by 45 classes working concurrently, LFUCG could see budget increases of =
$8.9
million dollars annually.
<=
span
style=3D'font-size:88%;color:white;mso-color-index:0;visibility:hidden'>•
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS=
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
•High School Dropouts are 30.8% =
more likely to be unemployed.
•Unemployed adults are more likely to receive welfare, medicare and
medicaid benefits.
•2004 Kentucky Corrections figur=
es indicate that 39.7% of state in=
mates
do =
not
have a high
school diploma or GED.
Consider
that…
Kentucky Center for School =
Safety
•<=
b>SO
HOW DO WE:
1.Increase Attendance
2.Raise Test Scores
3.Motivate Students
4.
![](3D"slide0055_image006.jpg")
ZITS